Five Wins Or Bust
1:15 – Carrying Face
Crimson Geode, Highlands Turkey, Fragment Of Anger
win vs. Wolpertinger, Yellow-Bellied Toad, Huge Toad
So far the only way my team has been able to win is if it does strong damage. Peck did the job against those toads.
5:00 – Miss Moonberry
Cursed Birman, Nether Fairie Dragon, Moon Moon
loss vs. Graves, Fragement Of Anger, MPD
I’ve never done well with a moonlight team.
9:20 – Rick Frostly
Graves, Ghastly Kid, Frostwolf Ghostpup
win vs. Teroclaw Hatchling, Kun-Lai Runt, Fragment Of Anger
I was hoping to have a rematch against the last team, but I still got to kill a healy bird.
15:20 – No Backlinesees
Yu’La, Crimson Geode, MPD
loss vs. Bone Serpent, Hydraling, Crusher
Let’s take the 2nd most OP move in the game and use it twice!
23:35 – Mister Baggles
Mr.Bigglesworth, Scalded Basilisk Hatchling, Ghastly Kid
win vs. Graves, Fragment Of Anger, Weebomenation
A solid win.
32:00 – Odd Spider Out
Blazing Cindercrawler, Molten Hatchling, Crystal Spider
win vs. Fel Pup, Doom Bloom, Graves
That was fun.
40:50 – Animus Bananimus
Fiendish Imp, Son Of Animus, Fel Flame
win vs. Zomstrok, Pocket Reaver, Dread Hatchling
Come to think of it, I’ve probably used this team before in MoP.
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Another great vid, Disco. If it eases your mind, and if you haven’t already noticed – as you contemplated using Crystal Prison against Graves to avoid the Bonestorm in the Mister Baggles battle, Graves already had the Resilient buff on him from Mr. Bigglesworth’s Ice Tomb. So you certainly did make the right decision. =)
I don’t think I noticed >.<
(Edit: TL;DR at the end)
In the last battle with the fel flame against the pocket reaver (at around 41:40 of the video), you actually made the correct decision to conflagrate first and then use flame breath as opposed to using flame breath first and then conflagrate. This is because your fel flame was faster.
If you conflagrate first as you did, then the pocket reaver would either get off one hit or no hits at all.
1. The pocket reaver gets no hits off. This only happens if both conflagrate hits crit. The first one activates the fail safe (945 hit > 720 health remaining) and the second kills it (315 hit > 288 health remaining after fail safe activates). Unlikely, but it’s still possible.
2. The pocket reaver gets one hit off. I think this happens for any other combination of hits or crits. If the first conflagrate hit crits but the second hit doesn’t, then the pocket reaver will be brought to 78 health (after fail safe), it gets an attack off and the dot ticks finish it off. If neither hit is a crit, then it gets a hit off and the flame breath will kill it first next round since the fel flame is faster. The only difference between these two possibilities is the cooldown on conflag is 4 turns in the latter case but 3 rounds in the former. This is probably immaterial to the outcome of the battle.
If, on the other hand, you use flame breath first and then conflagrate, then the pocket reaver will get one hit off or two hits off. The flame breath cannot activate fail safe even if all hits and ticks crit so there will always be two rounds to kill it.
3. The pocket reaver gets one hit off. In the second round, the only way it does not get off a second attack is if the second conflagrate hit crits.
4. The pocket reaver gets two hits off. This happens in all other scenarios. The dot ticks finish it off but only after it gets the second attack off.
If the crit chance on any hit is 5% (and given the crit chance on all hits are independent events), then by using conflagrate first, the probability of 0 hits is 0.25% (two consecutive crits on conflagrate) and the probability of 1 hit is 99.75% (all other scenarios). If you used flame breath first, the probability of 1 hit is 5% (only happens when the second conflagrate hit crits) and the probability of 2 hits is 95% (all other scenarios). It’s pretty clear that the strategy using conflagrate first weakly dominates the strategy using flame breath first.
TL;DR: Discodoggy made the right decision to conflagrate first in the last battle against the pocket reaver and avoided a second hit (and had a chance at not getting hit at all).
Thanks for the awesome breakdown! People don’t realize how complicated some of these scenarios in pet battle can be. Glad I made the right call.