March 23, 2016

Disco’s Three
Haven’t been battling much.

1:00 – Triple Helix
Fiendish Imp, Frostwolf Ghostpup, Arctic Hare
vs. Teroclaw Hatchling, Unborn Val’kyr, Bronze Whelpling

They ran, I didn’t mind. Damn those healy birds!

3:55 – Druid of The Dance
Moonkin Hatchling, Jademist Dancer, Swamp Croaker
vs. Ore Eater, Teroclaw Hatchling, Ghastly Kid

The didn’t run. I didn’t win. I sort of recall saying some bad things about Ore Eater and bird users. I hope it wasn’t too bad.

10:45 – Ginsu Brothers
Trunks, Alpine Foxling, Fragment Of Anger
vs. Ore Eater, Teroclaw Hatchling, Ghastly Kid

I wanted revenge with Slitherbeamer but I queued with this team instead. I won, but it took some luck at the end with the triple Flurry hitting before the Shall Armor went up.

Bonus Battle
16:25 – Slitherbeamer
Fragemnt Of Anger, Jademist Dancer, Slithershock Elver
vs. Crusher, Yu’la, Spring Rabbit

Why yes, I can count to three! I wanted to see how Slitherbeamer would fare against the previous team, but I never got the chance to see.

3 Responses to March 23, 2016

  1. Jere says:

    Great video!

    I think you missed posting video #57. I saw it up on the youtube site, but you didn’t have a battle page posted here between 3/12 (video #56) and today (#58)

  2. Duskstalker says:

    In the description for the battle at 1:00, one of the teroclaw hatchling opponents listed should be a bronze whelpling.

    As for the end game scenarios if the fox hadn’t gotten 3 hits with flurry on the ore eater to win, I think the best case scenario for Discodoggy here would have been a draw. If he were unlucky it would be a loss.

    Let’s assume that flurry hits twice and the ore eater uses shell armor immediately after. Even though body slam is weak against the fox, the optimal sequence for the ore eater is body slam – acid touch – body slam. The fox will also have crouch up for the duration of the shell armor and one round after it expires which will halve the damage.

    The fox has 456 health to work with. Since the ore eater is an S/B breed, each body slam will deal (427/1.5)/2 = 142 (rounding down). Two body slams total 284 damage. Acid touch is applied in the second turn for 171/2 = 86 (rounding up; I am unsure how the game treats decimals – if it rounds or truncates – but it won’t matter for this analysis) and a tick will deal 71/2 = 36 (rounding up). For the duration of the shell armor, it will tick 2 times for 72 total. Adding up all the damage gives 284 + 86 + 72 = 442. Provided that there were not any crits, the fox will have 14 health remaining after the shell armor wears off. The probability of the fox remaining alive when the shell armor expires is the probability of none of the 5 hits or ticks being a crit which is (0.95)^5 = 77.4%. Any crit will kill the fox which results in a loss.

    The ore eater will have 47 health remaining once the shell armor is used and will regain 56 health for 3 rounds. When the shell armor expires the ore eater will have 215 health. Since the fox will do 115 damage per flurry hit and is guaranteed to hit twice, the ore eater will die. The fox will also die at the end of the round from the acid touch tick (36 damage to 14 health remaining). This results in a draw.

    In the end, the win, loss, and draw probabilities are:
    P(win) = 50% (flurry hits 3 times before shell armor used)
    P(loss) = 0.5(1-0.774) = 11.3% (flurry hits twice; at least one crit on the fox)
    P(draw) = 0.5(0.774) = 38.7% (flurry hits twice; no crits on the fox)

  3. Discodoggy says:

    Awesome analysis!

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